It is estimated that the special debt will drive about 2.75 trillion yuan to invest in infrastructure in 2021. Compared with the 2.02 trillion yuan under the benchmark situation in 2020, the incremental capital is 650 billion yuan. With the funds from other sources unchanged, it will increase the growth rate of infrastructure in 2021 by 3.9 percentage points.
In the second half of the year, efforts are being made to promote investment and steady growth.
A number of major engineering projects identified in the 14th five year plan have been deployed and promoted one after another. Recently, major projects in Shandong, Beijing, Tianjin, Guangdong, Hubei and other places have started construction intensively, the investment structure is being optimized, and the proportion of investment in high-tech manufacturing industry is increasing. Manufacturing investment is expected to become an important force driving economic recovery.
At the same time, as one of the important sources of capital for infrastructure investment, the issuance of special bonds will be accelerated in the second half of the year. It is expected that 2.6 trillion yuan of new special bonds will be issued, and infrastructure investment will hit the bottom and rebound in the second half of the year.
Recently, Zhai Shanqing, director of the investment department of the National Bureau of statistics, said that in the next stage, with the deployment and implementation of a number of strategic, basic and leading major engineering projects determined in the outline of the 14th five year plan and the steady progress in the issuance of new local government special bonds this year, investment will continue to maintain a restorative growth trend.
Intensive commencement of major projects
Recently, many places have seized the golden period of project construction, and a series of major projects have been intensively started. 720 major projects in Shandong Province have been intensively started recently, with a total investment of 432.8 billion yuan and an average investment of more than 600 million yuan, including 109 projects with more than 1 billion yuan and 14 foreign-funded projects.
Zhou Lianhua, director of Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission, said that these projects have a large amount of investment, involving key areas such as advanced manufacturing, digital economy, rural revitalization, ecological environmental protection and people's livelihood guarantee. At the same time, they have a high level of quality, highlight the industrial ecological construction and the construction and improvement of industrial chain supply chain, meet the requirements of high-quality development, and play a strong leading and exemplary role.
On July 31, 227 major projects were started in Anhui Province, with a total investment of 106.41 billion yuan. This year, it is planned to invest 19.82 billion yuan. The number of manufacturing projects including strategic emerging industries, upgrading and transformation of traditional industries and innovation capacity accounted for 62.6% and the total investment accounted for 45.2%.
On July 21, the third batch of 29 major urban projects in Shanghai in 2021 were started, involving a total investment of about 21.7 billion yuan, covering municipal roads, medical and health care, education, affordable housing and other plate projects. The relevant person in charge of Shanghai Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development said that Shanghai is accelerating the construction of major projects, giving full play to the demonstration and leading role of major projects in the urban area, and ensuring the full completion of the construction and investment task of the whole year.
The reporter noted that the investment structure is being optimized, and the proportion of high-tech manufacturing investment is increasing. For example, 446 major projects in Tianjin in the second quarter recently started, including 195 strategic emerging industry projects such as high-end equipment manufacturing, biomedicine, new energy and new materials and big data center, accounting for nearly 40% of the investment.
Among the 161 major projects intensively started in Wuhan, there are 41 advanced manufacturing projects such as AVIC lithium power battery and energy storage battery Wuhan base project, Wuhan high generation thin film transistor liquid crystal display device expansion project, with a total investment of 40.3 billion yuan, accounting for 18.7%.
From the first half of the year, the investment in high-tech industry increased well. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to June, the investment in high-tech industry increased by 23.5% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 14.6% in two years, 4.7 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter. Investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 29.7%, and investment in high-tech services increased by 12.0%.
According to Wang Jun, chief economist of Zhongyuan bank, the key to better play the role of "ballast" of major projects is to play the role of major projects in optimizing investment structure and promoting economic transformation and upgrading. Increase investment in strategic emerging industries and the implementation of the "double carbon" (carbon peak and carbon neutralization) strategy, and focus on building major key and cross regional infrastructure projects facing the future and international competition.
Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said recently that the favorable factors supporting the sustained recovery of investment are increasing. A number of major engineering projects determined in the 14th five year plan are being deployed and promoted one after another. In June, there were more than 10000 large projects of 50 million yuan and above newly warehoused, an increase of 11.6% month on month. Liu Aihua also said that in the long run, there is huge investment space in new industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization. There is great investment potential in promoting the renewal and transformation of urban infrastructure, implementing the Rural Revitalization Strategy, optimizing and stabilizing the industrial chain and supply chain, and accelerating the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Overall, the investment in the next stage will continue to maintain a sustained recovery trend.
Take multiple measures to stabilize manufacturing investment
Since last year, the pressure of epidemic prevention and control and the complex and severe external economic and trade environment have led to the slow recovery of enterprise investment capacity and investment confidence, and the investment in fixed assets has been greatly impacted. Among them, the recovery of manufacturing investment is slower than that of real estate investment and infrastructure investment.
From January to June this year, China's manufacturing investment increased by 19.2% year-on-year, 6.6 percentage points higher than the total investment. Due to the continuation of the strong repair trend of foreign demand, the enterprise profits have been significantly improved, the investment enthusiasm of private enterprises is high, and the low base effect is superimposed to promote the continuous and rapid repair of manufacturing investment.
However, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value from January to June reached 7.0%, while the manufacturing investment on the demand side increased by only 2.0% in the same period, and the recovery of manufacturing investment continued to be slow.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin investment and President of the Research Institute, said that manufacturing investment may become an important driver of economic recovery in 2021. On the basis of the recovery of external demand, the substantial improvement of profits of manufacturing enterprises and the flow of loans to manufacturing, manufacturing investment has recovered rapidly. In the second half of the year, the above factors will continue to play a role, and the start-up of structural inventory replenishment and financial support of industrial enterprises will be strengthened to accelerate the growth of manufacturing investment.
Li Mo, an analyst at Caixin Research Institute, said that the profit differentiation of upstream, middle and downstream industries caused by the rise of commodity prices is the main reason for the continued weakness of manufacturing investment, and the investment willingness and ability of middle and downstream industries, which account for about 70% of investment, have been significantly restrained.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Li Mo predicts that the lag effect of indicators such as improved corporate profits, warmer demand and improved capacity utilization will continue to appear in the second half of the year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to continue to repair upward. However, under the combined influence of the high fluctuation pattern of bulk commodity prices and the weakening marginal end demand, it may be difficult for upstream, middle and downstream prices of manufacturing industry to achieve effective transmission, The profit improvement space in the middle and lower reaches is limited, and the marginal slowdown probability of investment and repair kinetic energy in manufacturing industry is too large.
Xiao Gang, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference, wrote an article and analyzed that we should take multiple measures to stabilize manufacturing investment. First, we should reduce the comprehensive cost of manufacturing enterprises. In the face of the rising pressure of the cost of factors such as labor, raw materials and land, we should find ways to reduce the burden on manufacturing enterprises and create a new comprehensive competitive advantage in China's manufacturing industry; Second, improve the ability of independent innovation, accelerate the cultivation and development of high-quality manufacturing enterprises, and improve the innovation investment mechanism, innovation incentive mechanism and innovation protection mechanism; Third, continue to improve the capacity and efficiency of financial service manufacturing industry.
The growth rate of infrastructure investment will pick up in the second half of the year
From the perspective of infrastructure investment, one of the three main bodies of fixed asset investment, since this year, China's fixed asset investment has recovered steadily and private investment has gradually warmed up, but the growth rate of infrastructure investment is slightly lower than expected. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, infrastructure investment increased by 7.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with an average growth of 2.4% in the two years, slightly lower than that from January to may (2.6%).
Wang Jingwen, Macro Analyst of Minsheng Bank Research Institute, analyzed that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first half of the year was weaker than expected, mainly due to the slow progress of special bond issuance and fiscal expenditure.
In the first half of the year, China's economy has achieved a relatively stable and sustained recovery, and the necessity of fiscal counter cyclical force is not very high. At the same time, the postposition of financial resources is conducive to balancing fiscal revenue and expenditure, leaving more space for fiscal policies in the second half of the year and next year.
Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC international, believes that the infrastructure investment slowed down in the first half of the year due to the synergistic influence of three factors: the constraint of infrastructure capital expenditure, the backwardness of financial resources and the poor performance of infrastructure projects. In the second half of the year, affected by the base effect, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure from July to August may change from positive to negative, but near the end of the third quarter, infrastructure investment will hit the bottom and rebound and accelerate the recovery.
Cheng Shi further analyzed that at the macro level, the endogenous pressure in the process of switching the kinetic energy of economic growth has gradually emerged, and the marginal improvement of Finance and currency will support the infrastructure underpinning economy; At the micro level, the squeezing effect of shed reform debt on infrastructure debt has gradually subsided. With the national policy preference for "two new and one heavy", urban renewal and rural construction, the proportion of special debt funds invested in infrastructure will further increase.
As one of the important sources of capital for infrastructure investment, the issuance of special bonds will be accelerated in the second half of the year, and it is expected that 2.6 trillion yuan of new special bonds will be issued. On July 12, the Symposium of the State Council required to support the good use of funds such as special bonds of local governments and promote key construction such as major projects and basic livelihood projects.
According to Luo Zhiheng, vice president of YueKai Securities Research Institute, assuming that the issuance of 3.65 trillion yuan of new special bonds this year is completed, the proportion of investment in infrastructure is 60%, and two-thirds of the funds form physical investment, it is expected that the special bonds will drive about 2.75 trillion yuan to invest in infrastructure in 2021, which is 650 billion yuan compared with 2.02 trillion yuan in 2020, Under the condition that other sources of funds remain unchanged, it will increase the growth rate of infrastructure construction by 3.9 percentage points in 2021.
Cheng Shi said that although the basic requirements of the state for stabilizing the macro leverage ratio and reducing the leverage ratio of local governments will not change this year, and the implicit debt pressure of local governments will continue to limit the development space of infrastructure investment, infrastructure investment, as the main policy tool of "counter cycle" and "stable growth", can still play a role in underpinning economic growth and smoothing economic fluctuations.
